Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29 2020 | 3656 | 29817 | 128 | 16 | 982 | 1148 |
| October 30 2020 | 3738 | 30174 | 130 | 16 | 1002 | 1180 |
| October 31 2020 | 3845 | 30345 | 132 | 17 | 1062 | 1287 |
| November 01 2020 | 3960 | 30646 | 137 | 21 | 1110 | 1325 |
| November 02 2020 | 4095 | 30734 | 138 | 21 | 1154 | 1421 |
| November 03 2020 | 4225 | 31211 | 145 | 25 | 1168 | 1489 |
| November 04 2020 | 4316 | 31442 | 148 | 28 | 1174 | 1533 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 4.9 | 4.5% | 53 | 0.46% | 69 | 0.6% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 14.1 | 13.6% | 160 | 1.18% | 220 | 1.62% |
| 20-29 | 19 | 23.3 | 20.6% | 242 | 1.16% | 312 | 1.49% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 19.7 | 16.9% | 198 | 1.46% | 249 | 1.83% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 13.0 | 11.5% | 135 | 1.29% | 179 | 1.71% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 14.7 | 14.1% | 165 | 1.31% | 205 | 1.63% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 9.4 | 8.6% | 101 | 0.88% | 142 | 1.23% |
| 70+ | 14 | 13.0 | 10.2% | 120 | 1.15% | 157 | 1.5% |
| All ages | 91 | 112.1 | 100% | 1174 | 1.12% | 1533 | 1.46% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29 2020 | 1789 | 18804 | 64 | 19 | 665 | 830 |
| October 30 2020 | 1865 | 18966 | 65 | 21 | 735 | 848 |
| October 31 2020 | 1939 | 19066 | 67 | 24 | 724 | 922 |
| November 01 2020 | 1958 | 19236 | 67 | 24 | 679 | 926 |
| November 02 2020 | 2033 | 19273 | 70 | 24 | 715 | 909 |
| November 03 2020 | 2128 | 19511 | 73 | 24 | 731 | 998 |
| November 04 2020 | 2260 | 19647 | 76 | 24 | 863 | 1045 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 12 | 3.4 | 3.8% | 33 | 0.43% | 39 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 7.4 | 8.3% | 72 | 0.86% | 83 | 0.99% |
| 20-29 | 18 | 10.6 | 12.3% | 106 | 1.49% | 119 | 1.67% |
| 30-39 | 27 | 15.1 | 18.2% | 157 | 1.87% | 199 | 2.37% |
| 40-49 | 25 | 15.0 | 17.7% | 153 | 1.97% | 192 | 2.47% |
| 50-59 | 17 | 12.7 | 16.9% | 146 | 1.51% | 177 | 1.82% |
| 60-69 | 19 | 9.9 | 13.7% | 118 | 1.4% | 142 | 1.69% |
| 70+ | 7 | 8.0 | 9% | 78 | 1.1% | 94 | 1.32% |
| All ages | 132 | 82.1 | 100% | 863 | 1.33% | 1045 | 1.62% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29 2020 | 1178 | 12188 | 49 | 7 | 375 | 477 |
| October 30 2020 | 1223 | 12338 | 49 | 7 | 396 | 493 |
| October 31 2020 | 1281 | 12394 | 52 | 7 | 423 | 551 |
| November 01 2020 | 1320 | 12555 | 54 | 7 | 425 | 539 |
| November 02 2020 | 1388 | 12569 | 61 | 7 | 457 | 585 |
| November 03 2020 | 1424 | 12656 | 63 | 8 | 454 | 597 |
| November 04 2020 | 1494 | 12789 | 64 | 8 | 478 | 636 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.7 | 2.9% | 14 | 0.26% | 17 | 0.31% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 4.9 | 9.8% | 47 | 0.87% | 70 | 1.29% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 6.6 | 13.4% | 64 | 1.41% | 88 | 1.95% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 7.9 | 14.2% | 68 | 1.25% | 87 | 1.6% |
| 40-49 | 14 | 8.4 | 15.3% | 73 | 1.47% | 100 | 2.01% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 8.4 | 16.1% | 77 | 1.13% | 104 | 1.53% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 6.6 | 13% | 62 | 0.98% | 82 | 1.29% |
| 70+ | 3 | 7.3 | 16.1% | 77 | 1.22% | 91 | 1.44% |
| All ages | 70 | 51.7 | 100% | 478 | 1.06% | 636 | 1.41% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29 2020 | 4366 | 32516 | 90 | 21 | 549 | 709 |
| October 30 2020 | 4473 | 32771 | 91 | 22 | 605 | 755 |
| October 31 2020 | 4550 | 32945 | 92 | 22 | 643 | 832 |
| November 01 2020 | 4608 | 33134 | 93 | 23 | 647 | 850 |
| November 02 2020 | 4635 | 33228 | 93 | 23 | 651 | 818 |
| November 03 2020 | 4740 | 33696 | 96 | 23 | 715 | 872 |
| November 04 2020 | 4910 | 34026 | 99 | 23 | 827 | 1003 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 1.9 | 2.4% | 20 | 0.17% | 26 | 0.22% |
| 10-19 | 16 | 10.1 | 11.6% | 96 | 0.58% | 110 | 0.66% |
| 20-29 | 29 | 19.4 | 21.9% | 181 | 0.85% | 227 | 1.07% |
| 30-39 | 31 | 13.7 | 13.8% | 114 | 0.84% | 141 | 1.04% |
| 40-49 | 26 | 15.3 | 16.2% | 134 | 0.99% | 157 | 1.15% |
| 50-59 | 26 | 15.7 | 16.3% | 135 | 0.95% | 168 | 1.18% |
| 60-69 | 20 | 10.0 | 10.4% | 86 | 0.61% | 98 | 0.69% |
| 70+ | 18 | 7.3 | 7.4% | 61 | 0.47% | 76 | 0.58% |
| All ages | 170 | 93.4 | 100% | 827 | 0.7% | 1003 | 0.85% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29 2020 | 15153 | 238468 | 522 | 50 | 2637 | 3081 |
| October 30 2020 | 15521 | 239629 | 524 | 49 | 2700 | 3225 |
| October 31 2020 | 15839 | 241086 | 532 | 49 | 2718 | 3543 |
| November 01 2020 | 16011 | 242765 | 537 | 49 | 2696 | 3502 |
| November 02 2020 | 16207 | 243534 | 541 | 49 | 2652 | 3691 |
| November 03 2020 | 16768 | 244983 | 555 | 49 | 2937 | 3947 |
| November 04 2020 | 16963 | 246093 | 564 | 51 | 2837 | 3842 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 22 | 17.6 | 5.7% | 161 | 0.27% | 204 | 0.34% |
| 10-19 | 27 | 39.3 | 13.6% | 386 | 0.54% | 506 | 0.71% |
| 20-29 | 47 | 71.0 | 24% | 681 | 0.66% | 919 | 0.88% |
| 30-39 | 35 | 44.0 | 16% | 453 | 0.59% | 619 | 0.81% |
| 40-49 | 17 | 38.9 | 13.1% | 372 | 0.57% | 525 | 0.8% |
| 50-59 | 21 | 35.3 | 12.8% | 364 | 0.55% | 486 | 0.74% |
| 60-69 | 18 | 23.3 | 7.6% | 217 | 0.4% | 299 | 0.55% |
| 70+ | 8 | 21.3 | 7.2% | 203 | 0.41% | 284 | 0.58% |
| All ages | 195 | 290.6 | 100% | 2837 | 0.52% | 3842 | 0.7% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29 2020 | 214996 | 1803465 | 11003 | 1948 | 41105 | 52671 |
| October 30 2020 | 220092 | 1817061 | 11145 | 1972 | 41610 | 53906 |
| October 31 2020 | 225370 | 1826636 | 11374 | 2031 | 42683 | 59184 |
| November 01 2020 | 228863 | 1841205 | 11497 | 2047 | 42763 | 58749 |
| November 02 2020 | 232296 | 1846618 | 11597 | 2050 | 41818 | 58405 |
| November 03 2020 | 238067 | 1861962 | 11844 | 2102 | 43527 | 59585 |
| November 04 2020 | 244002 | 1872295 | 12087 | 2156 | 45836 | 61315 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 227 | 179.4 | 3.7% | 1710 | 0.27% | 2280 | 0.36% |
| 10-19 | 552 | 506.1 | 10.4% | 4746 | 0.63% | 6257 | 0.83% |
| 20-29 | 1026 | 835.9 | 17.1% | 7817 | 1.03% | 10443 | 1.38% |
| 30-39 | 940 | 774.1 | 16% | 7328 | 0.97% | 9775 | 1.29% |
| 40-49 | 908 | 715.9 | 14.8% | 6795 | 0.97% | 9131 | 1.31% |
| 50-59 | 989 | 778.4 | 16.2% | 7417 | 0.91% | 10030 | 1.23% |
| 60-69 | 685 | 550.7 | 11.5% | 5291 | 0.7% | 7124 | 0.94% |
| 70+ | 608 | 499.0 | 10.3% | 4732 | 0.74% | 6275 | 0.98% |
| All ages | 5935 | 4839.4 | 100% | 45836 | 0.79% | 61315 | 1.05% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 146.5 | 161.7 | 149.1 | 112.1 | 71.3 | 30% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161.6 | 82.1 | 54.3 | 36.8% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140.6 | 51.7 | 34.3 | 34.9% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84.8 | 66.5 | 106.7 | 93.4 | 43.9 | 27.6% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70.3 | 71.2 | 88.5 | 290.6 | 219.3 | 19.5% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105.3 | 82.7 | 138 | 4839.4 | 4050.6 | 30.5% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 11.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.42 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-25 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2141"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges