Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 29 2020 3656 29817 128 16 982 1148
October 30 2020 3738 30174 130 16 1002 1180
October 31 2020 3845 30345 132 17 1062 1287
November 01 2020 3960 30646 137 21 1110 1325
November 02 2020 4095 30734 138 21 1154 1421
November 03 2020 4225 31211 145 25 1168 1489
November 04 2020 4316 31442 148 28 1174 1533
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 6 4.9 4.5% 53 0.46% 69 0.6%
10-19 11 14.1 13.6% 160 1.18% 220 1.62%
20-29 19 23.3 20.6% 242 1.16% 312 1.49%
30-39 14 19.7 16.9% 198 1.46% 249 1.83%
40-49 13 13.0 11.5% 135 1.29% 179 1.71%
50-59 11 14.7 14.1% 165 1.31% 205 1.63%
60-69 3 9.4 8.6% 101 0.88% 142 1.23%
70+ 14 13.0 10.2% 120 1.15% 157 1.5%
All ages 91 112.1 100% 1174 1.12% 1533 1.46%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 29 2020 1789 18804 64 19 665 830
October 30 2020 1865 18966 65 21 735 848
October 31 2020 1939 19066 67 24 724 922
November 01 2020 1958 19236 67 24 679 926
November 02 2020 2033 19273 70 24 715 909
November 03 2020 2128 19511 73 24 731 998
November 04 2020 2260 19647 76 24 863 1045
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 12 3.4 3.8% 33 0.43% 39 0.5%
10-19 7 7.4 8.3% 72 0.86% 83 0.99%
20-29 18 10.6 12.3% 106 1.49% 119 1.67%
30-39 27 15.1 18.2% 157 1.87% 199 2.37%
40-49 25 15.0 17.7% 153 1.97% 192 2.47%
50-59 17 12.7 16.9% 146 1.51% 177 1.82%
60-69 19 9.9 13.7% 118 1.4% 142 1.69%
70+ 7 8.0 9% 78 1.1% 94 1.32%
All ages 132 82.1 100% 863 1.33% 1045 1.62%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 29 2020 1178 12188 49 7 375 477
October 30 2020 1223 12338 49 7 396 493
October 31 2020 1281 12394 52 7 423 551
November 01 2020 1320 12555 54 7 425 539
November 02 2020 1388 12569 61 7 457 585
November 03 2020 1424 12656 63 8 454 597
November 04 2020 1494 12789 64 8 478 636
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 1.7 2.9% 14 0.26% 17 0.31%
10-19 3 4.9 9.8% 47 0.87% 70 1.29%
20-29 10 6.6 13.4% 64 1.41% 88 1.95%
30-39 13 7.9 14.2% 68 1.25% 87 1.6%
40-49 14 8.4 15.3% 73 1.47% 100 2.01%
50-59 16 8.4 16.1% 77 1.13% 104 1.53%
60-69 9 6.6 13% 62 0.98% 82 1.29%
70+ 3 7.3 16.1% 77 1.22% 91 1.44%
All ages 70 51.7 100% 478 1.06% 636 1.41%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 29 2020 4366 32516 90 21 549 709
October 30 2020 4473 32771 91 22 605 755
October 31 2020 4550 32945 92 22 643 832
November 01 2020 4608 33134 93 23 647 850
November 02 2020 4635 33228 93 23 651 818
November 03 2020 4740 33696 96 23 715 872
November 04 2020 4910 34026 99 23 827 1003
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 1.9 2.4% 20 0.17% 26 0.22%
10-19 16 10.1 11.6% 96 0.58% 110 0.66%
20-29 29 19.4 21.9% 181 0.85% 227 1.07%
30-39 31 13.7 13.8% 114 0.84% 141 1.04%
40-49 26 15.3 16.2% 134 0.99% 157 1.15%
50-59 26 15.7 16.3% 135 0.95% 168 1.18%
60-69 20 10.0 10.4% 86 0.61% 98 0.69%
70+ 18 7.3 7.4% 61 0.47% 76 0.58%
All ages 170 93.4 100% 827 0.7% 1003 0.85%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 29 2020 15153 238468 522 50 2637 3081
October 30 2020 15521 239629 524 49 2700 3225
October 31 2020 15839 241086 532 49 2718 3543
November 01 2020 16011 242765 537 49 2696 3502
November 02 2020 16207 243534 541 49 2652 3691
November 03 2020 16768 244983 555 49 2937 3947
November 04 2020 16963 246093 564 51 2837 3842
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 22 17.6 5.7% 161 0.27% 204 0.34%
10-19 27 39.3 13.6% 386 0.54% 506 0.71%
20-29 47 71.0 24% 681 0.66% 919 0.88%
30-39 35 44.0 16% 453 0.59% 619 0.81%
40-49 17 38.9 13.1% 372 0.57% 525 0.8%
50-59 21 35.3 12.8% 364 0.55% 486 0.74%
60-69 18 23.3 7.6% 217 0.4% 299 0.55%
70+ 8 21.3 7.2% 203 0.41% 284 0.58%
All ages 195 290.6 100% 2837 0.52% 3842 0.7%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 29 2020 214996 1803465 11003 1948 41105 52671
October 30 2020 220092 1817061 11145 1972 41610 53906
October 31 2020 225370 1826636 11374 2031 42683 59184
November 01 2020 228863 1841205 11497 2047 42763 58749
November 02 2020 232296 1846618 11597 2050 41818 58405
November 03 2020 238067 1861962 11844 2102 43527 59585
November 04 2020 244002 1872295 12087 2156 45836 61315
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 227 179.4 3.7% 1710 0.27% 2280 0.36%
10-19 552 506.1 10.4% 4746 0.63% 6257 0.83%
20-29 1026 835.9 17.1% 7817 1.03% 10443 1.38%
30-39 940 774.1 16% 7328 0.97% 9775 1.29%
40-49 908 715.9 14.8% 6795 0.97% 9131 1.31%
50-59 989 778.4 16.2% 7417 0.91% 10030 1.23%
60-69 685 550.7 11.5% 5291 0.7% 7124 0.94%
70+ 608 499.0 10.3% 4732 0.74% 6275 0.98%
All ages 5935 4839.4 100% 45836 0.79% 61315 1.05%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
146.5 161.7 149.1 112.1 71.3 30%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
161.6 82.1 54.3 36.8%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
140.6 51.7 34.3 34.9%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
84.8 66.5 106.7 93.4 43.9 27.6%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
70.3 71.2 88.5 290.6 219.3 19.5%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
105.3 82.7 138 4839.4 4050.6 30.5%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

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Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 11.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.42 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-25 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2141"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red